The playoff scenario

[Spize]

Ok, so I was bored for a couple hours tonight and went through excel and calculated win/loss scenarios for Massillon and the teams above Massillon in the region.

Now I don't claim to be either an excel or math expert, and I am going on the harbin numbers explanation on the OHSAA website. So it is entirely possible I have made an error and if you see one let me know.

However if I have done it right, this is it.


These schools as locks to finish above us, and are pretty much playoff locks.

Brunswick
Hoover
Perrysburg
Nordonia/Stow game winner.
Whitmer
Fremont Ross (not a playoff lock, but a lock to finish above us)

Teams we can pass... but what needs to happen.

We would need to win out... AND the teams we beat, and have beaten, win at least 9 more games. *not including Mck/Boardman when looking at Perry (basically if Mck beat boardman, take it as a wash for the Perry scenario)

According to http://www.geocities.com/massillonharbins/ this would put us over 18 points, and would put us in as long as at least 5 of the following 6 things happens.


Wadsworth...

Must lose to Tallmadge & Wooster loses out with all other teams they beat onlny winning 7 total games (not impossible)

Perry...

Must lose to Hoover with all other teams they beat only getting 4 wins.
or, Loss to Hoover and GlenOak.

GlenOak...

2 more loses and 8 or less wins by teams they have beat (once again, Wooster losing out would help us a lot)
or, lose out.

Toledo St. John's

Must lose 1 of their last 2 games with all the teams they beat only winning 8 or less games.

Nordonia vs Stow loser. (Trust me.. GO NORDONIA!!)

If Stow, not much else needs to happen, just they teams they have beat must win 9 or less games to end the year. This would be a huge upset if their opponents won 9 games.

If Nordonia, this one is sticky. Nordonia MUST then lose to Mayfield in week 9, and have the teams they beat win 8 or less games.

Amherst Steele...

Must lose in week 10 to Avon Lake, otherwise it is not possible for them to finish worse than us.

(It is not really likely they will be challenged until then, but if they are beaten I will update this)




It is not looking good. I may have made an error in there, if so that whole thing is wrong, but if my calculations are right (I think they are) then that is our playoff scenario in a nutshell.

P.S. Yes, I factored for teams below us, the only team I did figures on was Jackson, but I didn't include them in this scenario because it is unlikely for them to win out, and if they beat Perry it changes this scenario enough that I would redo it anyhow.

update. Perry's Candian team won again, so i adjusted their L2 wins needed #

[Spize]

If anyone wants a really simple version of this...

Win out, and we will know the morning of the Mckinley game if a win gets us in or not, besides on that morning, the playoffs are at the very back of our minds anyhow.

[Obie Wan]

It boils down to this: we have to win out and hope that several other teams screw up as bad in the next 3 weeks as we did in the first 3.

[Spize]

It boils down to this: we have to win out and hope that several other teams screw up as bad in the next 3 weeks as we did in the first 3.

right.

[LakeCountyTiger]

Pretty impressive work Spize, even if there was an error in there it would have still been a great effort on your part.... Goes to show you how important each game is. If we beat Solon or Normandy or Mentor it would be a whole different conversation... oh well, we didn't....thanks again for doing this..

[massillon catholic]

Pretty impressive work Spize, even if there was an error in there it would have still been a great effort on your part.... Goes to show you how important each game is. If we beat Solon or Normandy or Mentor it would be a whole different conversation... oh well, we didn't....thanks again for doing this..


I had a feeling the first and goal from the 2 yard line and not scoring was going to come back and haunt us. What a shame!

[Rushfan]

Our chances of getting in are astronomical,and even if we did,how would we do? I say beat Warren,Western Hills and McKinley,enjoy those wins,and then start working on 2008-REALLY work.

[Spize]

Our chances of getting in are astronomical,and even if we did,how would we do? I say beat Warren,Western Hills and McKinley,enjoy those wins,and then start working on 2008-REALLY work.

I agree. The wierd scenario that would get us into the playoffs is about as good as being eliminated already. We really need to see some of the younger players get some gametime, and not just in garbage time against Western Hills. Atkins and Partridge should get at least half the snaps, let C.W. start the first series or two, but after that this season should be all about developement for next year and beating Mckinley.

If we do that and make it in, then we can truly say the TEAM earned it.

[Obie Wan]

This may be pointless conjecture, but if we do make it, I'm not sure we'd be an big underdog to anyone but Brunswick.

[Spize]

This may be pointless conjecture, but if we do make it, I'm not sure we'd be an big underdog to anyone but Brunswick.

How would this be as a odd scenario... I have one scenario, if we made it, that would put us against Whitmer week 11.

[Rushfan]

This may be pointless conjecture, but if we do make it, I'm not sure we'd be an big underdog to anyone but Brunswick.

Did Brunswick lose this week? I thought I heard that but I wasn't for sure.

[Rushfan]

I agree. The wierd scenario that would get us into the playoffs is about as good as being eliminated already. We really need to see some of the younger players get some gametime, and not just in garbage time against Western Hills. Atkins and Partridge should get at least half the snaps, let C.W. start the first series or two, but after that this season should be all about developement for next year and beating Mckinley.

If we do that and make it in, then we can truly say the TEAM earned it.

Don't forget about Litman. He's pretty good.

[Banks]

Did Brunswick lose this week? I thought I heard that but I wasn't for sure.

Brunswick (7-0) 14
Solon (5-2) 10

[hartville tiger]

Massillon needs to just run the table for the rest of the season. The solon game was one we let get away!! What really hurts is that their are a number of teams in their that we could beat but, they don't have enough balls to schedule us!!

[massillon catholic]

This may be pointless conjecture, but if we do make it, I'm not sure we'd be an big underdog to anyone but Brunswick.

We've have only beat one Division I team to this point. How could we be favored against anybody in DI ?

[Obie Wan]

We've have only beat one Division I team to this point. How could we be favored against anybody in DI ?
Would you say that Wadsworth, Perrysburg, Stow, or Steele would be any kind of favorite against Massillon? Would you suggest that Whitmer, Hoover, Nordonia GlenOak, St. Johns, etc. would be a big favorite? If that's your honest opnion, I'd suggest that your emotions are overriding your ability to reason.

[JakeGiant]

Would you say that Wadsworth, Perrysburg, Stow, or Steele would be any kind of favorite against Massillon? Would you suggest that Whitmer, Hoover, Nordonia GlenOak, St. Johns, etc. would be a big favorite? If that's your honest opnion, I'd suggest that your emotions are overriding your ability to reason.

I would think the 1st 4 you mentioned wouldn't stand a chance. As far as the other 4, I think they could make a game of it, especially the 2 Toledo schools who have the athletes to compete.

[TigerDL71]

I would think the 1st 4 you mentioned wouldn't stand a chance. As far as the other 4, I think they could make a game of it, especially the 2 Toledo schools who have the athletes to compete.

I think that Wadsworth would have given us a game this year. Wadsworth does not have that bad of a football program and could compete with us. Do I think they would be favored against us? No. Do I think they would give us a ball game most years? Yes.

[ChronicTiger]

I think that Wadsworth would have given us a game this year. Wadsworth does not have that bad of a football program and could compete with us. Do I think they would be favored against us? No. Do I think they would give us a ball game most years? Yes.

I dont think they would give us a game most years. What years do you think this could have happened? I can think of only one. What are your feelings based on?

[crackerman]

I think that Wadsworth would have given us a game this year. Wadsworth does not have that bad of a football program and could compete with us. Do I think they would be favored against us? No. Do I think they would give us a ball game most years? Yes.

Wadsworth lost to Cloverleaf (a team who will not make the div. 2 playoffs) and beat Wooster in OT.....yes the same Wooster team that just got drilled by Lexington 58-3. With all due respect to the Grizzlies, records out the window on this one...Tigers would beat up on Wadsworth.

[TigerDL71]

Wadsworth lost to Cloverleaf (a team who will not make the div. 2 playoffs) and beat Wooster in OT.....yes the same Wooster team that just got drilled by Lexington 58-3. With all due respect to the Grizzlies, records out the window on this one...Tigers would beat up on Wadsworth.

They are not great year in and year out but I bet they would give us a better game then some of the teams on the schedule this year. Plus they always have a good record and would give us a lot of computer points. The Wadsworth team with Clint Cochran was a good team and would have competed with Massillon From what I seen from Wadsworth when they played Medina, and from what I seen from us against Buchtel, Wadsworth would have made the game competitive.

[TigerDL71]

I dont think they would give us a game most years. What years do you think this could have happened? I can think of only one. What are your feelings based on?

When Clint Cochran was the QB at Wadsworth they would have given us a game. And you mean to tell me after watching the Buchtel game that Wadsworth couldn't have made that game competitive? Most years Wadsworth is right there in the hunt for the playoffs.

[crackerman]

Oh they are great for computer points because their league is awful.....but they wouldnt of given Massillon a game.

[TigerDL71]

Oh they are great for computer points because their league is awful.....but they wouldnt of given Massillon a game.

I haven't seen Wadsworth probably as much as you have. But, I seen them play when they had Clint Cochran a their QB and they had a pretty good RB, I thought they would have given Massillon a game. I believe it was last year they televised the Green game and I thought they would have given us a game. And this year I watched the game against Medina on FSN. After seeing our game against Buchtel this week I thought they would give us a game. Maybe not year in and year out they would be able to compete with us but a majority of the years they would give us a fight and I would rather see us play them or a green rather then a Buchtel .

[longtimefirsttime]

Would you say that Wadsworth, Perrysburg, Stow, or Steele would be any kind of favorite against Massillon? Would you suggest that Whitmer, Hoover, Nordonia GlenOak, St. Johns, etc. would be a big favorite? If that's your honest opnion, I'd suggest that your emotions are overriding your ability to reason.

From the "projector" feature at Cal Preps (on a neutral field).

Massillon 38
Wadsworth 20

Massillon 31
Perrysburg 13

Massillon 31
Stow 19

Massillon 35
Steele 14

Massillon 31
Whitmer 27

Massillion 27
Nordonia 21

Massillon 26
Toledo St. Johns 19

Massillon 22
GlenOak 14

Only Hoover and Brunswick would be slight favorites. Sadly, the odds are not good that we'll ever know.

[Red50Go]

1. Massillon would do CARTWHEELS to add Wadsworth to the schedule every year. 2. Wadsworth would NEVER add Massillon to theirs, let alone any traditional D1 power in Ohio, or even a decent Fed team. Draw your conclusions from there.

[CarlE]

Blah, blah, blah. This is just stupid conjecture. God, STOP IT.

[giant lugey]

Right now we are a team with a 3-4 record, that would be mediocre in DIV II, and people are talking about how we would dominate all these DIV I teams who are way ahead of us in points.
Time to wake up and smell the coffee. There will be no playofs for us this year and no state titles until we do actually get to DIV II.
Like it or not, that is the reality of the whole thing.

[TigerVic]

Right now we are a team with a 3-4 record, that would be mediocre in DIV II, and people are talking about how we would dominate all these DIV I teams who are way ahead of us in points.
Time to wake up and smell the coffee. There will be no playofs for us this year and no state titles until we do actually get to DIV II.
Like it or not, that is the reality of the whole thing.

The losses this year were due to many other things besides enrollment.

[Spize]

Right now we are a team with a 3-4 record, that would be mediocre in DIV II, and people are talking about how we would dominate all these DIV I teams who are way ahead of us in points.
Time to wake up and smell the coffee. There will be no playofs for us this year and no state titles until we do actually get to DIV II.
Like it or not, that is the reality of the whole thing.


Wow.. you know absolutely nothing do you..

Given us any FED schedule this year and we are talking home game week 11, not screwed up scenarios for the playoffs.

Secondly I don't know where the heard of fans like you think that D2 is a cakewalk. Need I remind you that we lost to a D2 team? Need I point out that if we were D2 in our current point situation this year that there would be NO real discussion on how we could make the playoffs. That's right, D2 is harder this year then R2.

By your logic, should we send OHSAA back the 3 regional championships we have one in the last 6 seasons? How about calling them and informing them they have an error in their books in 2005. Because according you there is no way that a team like us, a team that by all rights according to you has no business in D1, no way at all we should have won ANY games in the playoffs, hell we should be a typical FED team and not make the playoffs 2 of 3 years.


You need to look at more than W-L when you look at these teams on joeeitel.com (like every other "expert" that has email me this week). You need to look at who they played, and how they played against them.

[Spize]

Right now we are a team with a 3-4 record, that would be mediocre in DIV II, and people are talking about how we would dominate all these DIV I teams who are way ahead of us in points.
Time to wake up and smell the coffee. There will be no playofs for us this year and no state titles until we do actually get to DIV II.
Like it or not, that is the reality of the whole thing.


You do realize that we are 2 plays away this year from being 5-2 and talking about the playoff homegame we have locked, right?

(a 3rd and forever stop against Mentor, and moving the ball an inch on the goal line against Solon.)

[TigerCoach]

Wadsworth lost to Cloverleaf (a team who will not make the div. 2 playoffs) and beat Wooster in OT.....yes the same Wooster team that just got drilled by Lexington 58-3. With all due respect to the Grizzlies, records out the window on this one...Tigers would beat up on Wadsworth.

I agree, I watch the Grizzlies games on replay every week. I would put them up against the current Tigers JV team. The Suburban League (except Tallmadge) is 2 levels below the Federal League.

[Spize]

ANYTHING IN BOLD IS NOT HELPFUL TO US.


Game results that MUST happen this week.

Massillon 56 DEF Warren 0
Nordonia 14 DEF Stow 10 *
Middletown 27 VS Sycamore 48** (this is really really bad for us)
Youngstown Ursuline 28 DEF Beaver Local 0
Buchtel DEF Firestone and Garfield (this week and next) (Sat.)(Both of these games just became must wins)

Games results that would be VERY helpful

Lake DEF GlenOak
Clear Fork 20 DEF Wooster 17

Building towards the miracle.

Olmstead Falls DEF Westlake.
North Ridgeville DEF Vermillion.
Lakewood DEF Medina
Tallmadge 30 DEF Highland 24.
Cloverleaf DEF Revere
Copley DEF Green
Mayfield DEF Cuyahoga Falls
Wadsworth 37 DEF Barberton 14
Cardinal Newman DEF St Jean de Brebeuf
GlenOak DEF Lake
Hoover 34 DEF Fitch 7
Mck DEF Boardman
Sandusky 20 vs Findlay 23
Brunswick DEF Strongsville
Toledo St. Francis 14 vs Tol. Central Catholic 10
Tol. Scott DEF Clay

Unexpected Help (Not factored in as L2 winning games for Massillon) for the rest of the year

Western Hills DEF Withrow
Mck DEF Boardman (do not count toward Perry scenario)
Youngstown Ursuline DEF Youngstown Cardinal Mooney
Warren DEF Catherdral Prep (PA)
Western Hills DEF Elder (will not happen)

*There is still another scenario that works if this goes the other way, but we really want it this way.
**These games are factored in as positive L2 points for Massillon, if these do not turn out then they MUST be replaced by a win in the "Unexpected help" column

[Spize]

After this week I should be able to make a sheet with the exact scenario on it, but this is the best I have time to make right now.

The scenario will be really clear, either way, after this weekend.

[MR EMPTY PANTS]

Right now we are a team with a 3-4 record, that would be mediocre in DIV II, and people are talking about how we would dominate all these DIV I teams who are way ahead of us in points.
Time to wake up and smell the coffee. There will be no playofs for us this year and no state titles until we do actually get to DIV II.
Like it or not, that is the reality of the whole thing.

congrats to giant lugey, this guy sees the light, more than i can say for the rest of you

[Spize]

congrats to giant lugey, this guy sees the light, more than i can say for the rest of you

i am putting forth the scenario that would get us in.

I am not saying it is going to happen, I am saying if it does we will be in.

if you don't like that and want to talk about what a horrible team we are, then go to cantonmckinley.com , yappi.com , or one of the many sites that promote that. Heck, post in a different topic if this one bothers you.

If they do make it in this year, even with the longshot it is, I will be glad to post a link to this thread every time you post for a long long time.

[man2man]

I posted weeks ago on a thread that Tigers will go 6-4 and squeak into playoffs with a Week 10 victory over the Pups!!!

Go Tigers!!!! Go Coach Stacy!!!!!

[MR EMPTY PANTS]

i am putting forth the scenario that would get us in.

I am not saying it is going to happen, I am saying if it does we will be in.

if you don't like that and want to talk about what a horrible team we are, then go to cantonmckinley.com , yappi.com , or one of the many sites that promote that. Heck, post in a different topic if this one bothers you.

If they do make it in this year, even with the longshot it is, I will be glad to post a link to this thread every time you post for a long long time.

if a bullfrog had wings, it wouldn`t bump it`s @ss on the sidewalk

[Spize]

I posted weeks ago on a thread that Tigers will go 6-4 and squeak into playoffs with a Week 10 victory over the Pups!!!

Go Tigers!!!! Go Coach Stacy!!!!!

Hold on their cowboy, it is very much a long shot.


Besides, if your best buddy was any less predictable than a grandfather clock I wouldn't be doing so much math right now.

[Spize]

I updated the games I omitted in my games of importance this week post.

[Banks]

I know this isn't a factor for us but


Week 8 scores
Normandy 54
Brush 6

[Banks]

Game results that MUST happen this week.

Massillon DEF Warren
Nordonia DEF Stow*
Middletown DEF Sycamore**
Youngstown Ursuline DEF Beaver Local**
Buchtel DEF Firestone or Garfield (this week or next)

Games results that would be VERY helpful

Lake DEF GlenOak
Clear Fork DEF Wooster



Let me see if I follow you
We need Clear Fork to beat Wooster so
Glen Oak and Wadsworth don't get the L2 points ?

[Spize]

Let me see if I follow you
We need Clear Fork to beat Wooster so
Glen Oak and Wadsworth don't get the L2 points ?

Right.

[Tiger Flame]

Youngstown Ursuline beat Beaver Local 28-0 and their only loss was to the Tigers but their last two games are Mooney and Akron St. Vincent who are both undefeated. GO TIGERS BEAT WARREN

[Spize]

Youngstown Ursuline beat Beaver Local 28-0 and their only loss was to the Tigers but their last two games are Mooney and Akron St. Vincent who are both undefeated. GO TIGERS BEAT WARREN

They need to win 1 of those last 2 for my scenario. If they win both it really helps us a TON.

[Spize]

Ok, so I was bored for a couple hours tonight and went through excel and calculated win/loss scenarios for Massillon and the teams above Massillon in the region.

Now I don't claim to be either an excel or math expert, and I am going on the harbin numbers explanation on the OHSAA website. So it is entirely possible I have made an error and if you see one let me know.

However if I have done it right, this is it.


These schools as locks to finish above us, and are pretty much playoff locks.

Brunswick
Hoover
Perrysburg
Nordonia/Stow game winner.
Whitmer
Fremont Ross (not a playoff lock, but a lock to finish above us)

Teams we can pass... but what needs to happen.

We would need to win out... AND the teams we beat, and have beaten, win at least 8 more games. *not including Mck/Boardman when looking at Perry (basically if Mck beat boardman, take it as a wash for the Perry scenario)
((Ursuline over B.L. already included))(Week 8 in progress)

According to http://www.geocities.com/massillonharbins/ this would put us over 18 points, and would put us in as long as at least 5 of the following 6 things happens.


Wadsworth...

Must lose to Tallmadge & Wooster loses out with all other teams they beat onlny winning 7 total games (not impossible)

Perry...

Must lose to Hoover with all other teams they beat only getting 4 wins.
or, Loss to Hoover and GlenOak.

GlenOak...

2 more loses and 8 or less wins by teams they have beat (once again, Wooster losing out would help us a lot)
or, lose out.

Toledo St. John's

Must lose 1 of their last 2 games with all the teams they beat only winning 8 or less games.

Nordonia vs Stow loser. (Trust me.. GO NORDONIA!!)

If Stow, not much else needs to happen, just they teams they have beat must win 9 or less games to end the year. This would be a huge upset if their opponents won 9 games.

If Nordonia, this one is sticky. Nordonia MUST then lose to Mayfield in week 9, and have the teams they beat win 8 or less games.

Amherst Steele...

Must lose in week 10 to Avon Lake, otherwise it is not possible for them to finish worse than us.

(It is not really likely they will be challenged until then, but if they are beaten I will update this)




It is not looking good. I may have made an error in there, if so that whole thing is wrong, but if my calculations are right (I think they are) then that is our playoff scenario in a nutshell.

P.S. Yes, I factored for teams below us, the only team I did figures on was Jackson, but I didn't include them in this scenario because it is unlikely for them to win out, and if they beat Perry it changes this scenario enough that I would redo it anyhow.

update. Perry's Candian team won again, so i adjusted their L2 wins needed #

Week 8 adjustments to be made on this quote

[massillon catholic]

Instead of all of these scenerios wouldn't it have been a whole lot easier to just have opened up the play-book or at least borrowed someone else's who had more than three plays in it?

[Spize]

Instead of all of these scenerios wouldn't it have been a whole lot easier to just have opened up the play-book or at least borrowed someone else's who had more than three plays in it?

Maybe, but that is the past and can be discussed immediately following the season. This thread is about the possibilities still available this season.

[massillon catholic]

Maybe, but that is the past and can be discussed immediately following the season. This thread is about the possibilities still available this season.

I understand. It appears that you certainly have done a lot of research, well done!

[DragonTigerNemesis]

I understand. It appears that you certainly have done a lot of research, well done!

WOW!

Have you been reading CarlE's Zen wisdom and taking it to heart?

[Spize]

WOW!

Have you been reading CarlE's Zen wisdom and taking it to heart?


I think it is more likely because there are many other threads, and forums, to be critical of past performances on.

[Spize]

btw, I am updating my above post.

I know GlenOak lost, but I do not know the score.

[tiger74]

sycamore 48 middletown 27 final

[tiger74]

iggy over lasalle 22-20 last second FG

[Striker300]

Lake35-14 over GlenOak!

[tiger74]

14-10 nordonia over stow

[Spize]

Looks like I need to re-figure the scenario, however it was that touchy that Middletown losing may be about it. If they lost to Sycamore that badly, I can't imagine it will go well against Princeton. Not to mention, Warren is very unlikely to win another game. Buchtel doesn't look like they would win out to help us make up for it and W.H. is.. well they are Western Hills.

Folks, I will keep up on this and look into a new scenario, but I think it is realistically over, even if it is not mathmatically over... yet.

[TIGER27]

so what does that all mean?

[Spize]

so what does that all mean?

It means that barring an extremely unlikely miracle, we will be putting the football gear into storage after the Mckinley game.

Like I said, there is the slightest of shots even after that, but at this point I would not get your hopes us at all.

Mathematically we are still alive, but Mathmatically alive doesn't take into account for W.H. playing Elder in week 10.

I am an optimist as much as anyone else, but what we need would require a TON of help, like I said I will still keep up and will have an exact scenario sheet on Sunday, we shall see.

[Spark Bibo]

Rossford upsets Perrysburg 27-21 ot.

[Spize]

Rossford upsets Perrysburg 27-21 ot.

If Perrysburg loses out they will have over 20 points, they likely will win in week 10 and finish with over 21.

If everyone we beat or play in week 9/10 win out (less W.H. over Elder) we would not catch them.

Mck's Forfeit is really hurting us too.





ANYTHING IN BOLD IS NOT HELPFUL TO US.


Game results that MUST happen this week.

Massillon 56 DEF Warren 0
Nordonia 14 DEF Stow 10 *
Middletown 27 VS Sycamore 48** (this is really really bad for us)
Youngstown Ursuline 28 DEF Beaver Local 0
Buchtel DEF Firestone and Garfield (this week and next) (Sat.)(Both of these games just became must wins)

Games results that would be VERY helpful

Lake DEF GlenOak
Clear Fork 20 DEF Wooster 17

Building towards the miracle.

Olmstead Falls 36 DEF Westlake 18 .
North Ridgeville 27 DEF Vermillion 16.
Lakewood 20 Medina 21
Tallmadge 30 DEF Highland 24.
Cloverleaf 16 Revere 24
Copley 10 Green 17
Mayfield 16 DEF Cuyahoga Falls 0
Wadsworth 37 DEF Barberton 14
Cardinal Newman DEF St Jean de Brebeuf
GlenOak DEF Lake
Hoover 34 DEF Fitch 7
Mck DEF Boardman
Sandusky 20 vs Findlay 23
Brunswick 27 DEF Strongsville 7
Toledo St. Francis 14 vs Tol. Central Catholic 10
Tol. Scott DEF Clay

Unexpected Help (Not factored in as L2 winning games for Massillon) for the rest of the year

Western Hills DEF Withrow
Mck DEF Boardman (do not count toward Perry scenario)
Youngstown Ursuline DEF Youngstown Cardinal Mooney
Warren DEF Catherdral Prep (PA)
Western Hills DEF Elder (will not happen)

*There is still another scenario that works if this goes the other way, but we really want it this way.
**These games are factored in as positive L2 points for Massillon, if these do not turn out then they MUST be replaced by a win in the "Unexpected help" column

I am not sure that Middletown and Buchtel will do what they need to do for us to have a real chance still.

We now need Ursuline to win out or Buchtel to win out. We also need WGH to beat East and Mck to beat Jackson. Middletown needs to win out, but Princeton has other plans

The prospect of catching Perry is fading fast.

I am downgrading out percentage to 1-2%

[Spize]

UPSET ALERT.

Midpark 38
Amherst Steele 26

I don't know yet if this effects anything, because honestly I didn't factor for it.

Midpark was 0-7 and Amherst was ahead of us in points. I don't see how this can hurt us, but it may open up another scenario.

-------------------------------------

Ok, I did some checking... The only way this really effects the scenario is that Steele will likely fall below us after this week, but can lap us if they win out. It is unlikely for them to win out. One more loss and they can't catch a cold.

[Obie Wan]

Rossford upsets Perrysburg 27-21 ot.
Ya know, that will help. As will Stow's loss.

The greater point is this: our wins are nice, but we really we need a bunch of teams ahead of us to lose (Perrysburg to Southview, Steele to Avon Lake, Ross to Napoleon, Wadsworth to Tallmadge, etc.).

[Spize]

Ya know, that will help. As will Stow's loss.

The greater point is this: our wins are nice, but we really we need a bunch of teams ahead of us to lose (Perrysburg to Southview, Steele to Avon Lake, Ross to Napoleon, Wadsworth to Tallmadge, etc.).

We can't catch Perrysburg. Stow's loss helps a TON... if we get the help we need.

[JakeGiant]

I don't mean to be a punk, but why go through the trouble to figure?

[Spize]

I don't mean to be a punk, but why go through the trouble to figure?

Boredom. Besides, what else am I gonna do with a day at the in-laws?

[JakeGiant]

Well, since you put it that way.....:laughing: At any rate, I think you're setting up for heartbreak trying to figure, when in essence, the Iggy game essentially eliminated the Tigers.

[Obie Wan]

At any rate, I think you're setting up for heartbreak trying to figure, when in essence, the Iggy game essentially eliminated the Tigers.
There are a few teams in R2 that hope so. Yours is probably one of them.

[JakeGiant]

Why would I care? A Massillon/McKinley being in the Region 2 Playoffs bodes well for the Region, and makes it stronger.

[Spize]

I am working on it right now...

At this point I think we can not finish any higher than 8th. The winner of the Perry/GlenOak game should not finish below us. If Perry beats Hoover, then they better beat GlenOak too. If Perry beats Hoover and loses to GlenOak we are done.

We may be dead by Sunday.

If we can get some help tomorrow things will look slightly better.

As of now, we need St. John's, Steele, and Wadsworth to meltdown to have a legit chance.

Basically, these teams are going to have to give it to us.

[Obie Wan]

We can't catch Perrysburg. Stow's loss helps a TON... if we get the help we need.
How so? I figure they can finish with anywhere from 13.8 to 27.3 points. If they lose to Southview, beat Springfield, and all the L2 games go to the team with the better record (Ross over Sandusky, etc.), and accounting for the points they'll get from upcoming games in when Perrysburg has beaten both teams (Maumee-Northview and Maumee-Wayne), they'll have less than 18 points. As will we, most likely.

[crackerman]

Ya know, that will help. As will Stow's loss.

The greater point is this: our wins are nice, but we really we need a bunch of teams ahead of us to lose (Perrysburg to Southview, Steele to Avon Lake, Ross to Napoleon, Wadsworth to Tallmadge, etc.).

Ok, I know its why they play the game and its not on paper BUT to take a look at 3 of those games, I think you will get your wish:

Tallmadge should beat Wadsworth
Southview should beat Perrysburg
Avon Lake should beat Amherst Steele

[Obie Wan]

Ok, I know its why they play the game and its not on paper BUT to take a look at 3 of those games, I think you will get your wish:

Tallmadge should beat Wadsworth
Southview should beat Perrysburg
Avon Lake should beat Amherst Steele

I think you're absolutely right - except that Tallmadge just had several starters suspended, so they aren't the heavy favorite I would normally expect them to be.

BTW, Steele lost tonight, as did every team they've beaten.

Even so, it's long odds indeed.

[crackerman]

I think you're absolutely right - except that Tallmadge just had several starters suspended, so they aren't the heavy favorite I would normally expect them to be..

I agree but still. Wadsworth lost to Cloverleaf for crying out loud and went to OT with a very bad Wooster team. I still expect Tallmadge to dominate that game.

[massillon catholic]

Folks, it ain't happening!

[Spize]

How so? I figure they can finish with anywhere from 13.8 to 27.3 points. If they lose to Southview, beat Springfield, and all the L2 games go to the team with the better record (Ross over Sandusky, etc.), and accounting for the points they'll get from upcoming games in when Perrysburg has beaten both teams (Maumee-Northview and Maumee-Wayne), they'll have less than 18 points. As will we, most likely.

You're right... partly.

I did error in my calculations with Perrysburg... However, many of the teams they played play each other so their L2s are close to guaranteed.

However if Perrysburg loses out I have them as low as 16.8 points which if we get some help would be enough. However, they play a very very bad springfield team in week 10, I don't know that they can meltdown quite that badly.

[man2man]

Spize - I appreciate you doing all this figuring. It gives me a headache just reading the scenarios, so I can't imagine plowing through the digits. Thankx.

[hitman]

Folks, it ain't happening!

ditto!

[Obie Wan]

Check it out (http://geocities.com/massillonharbins/2007r2.html).

[MTigers006]

Thank you Spize for everything your doing. It is very much appreciated.

[chumly]

Spize,

You could possibly be making 10 figures running a hedge fund. You may want to look into it with all your number crunching abilities.

[mtigers96]

mckinley's upset win tonight helps us WHEN we beat them with more computer points.

[Spize]

Check it out (http://geocities.com/massillonharbins/2007r2.html).


Wow... You just took all the fun out of my excel spreadsheets. I guys I don't need to make the new scenarios after all.

[Spize]

:mad: :thumbsdown: St. Jean de Brebeuf Braves blanked Cardinal Newman Cardinals 16-0.

[Spize]

You can't imagine how much bigger that same thing was a week ago LOL.

Mck over Boardman helped. Buchtel losing by 1 point didn't.

[austinsm11]

With what OW posted, I just don't see any way it happens. If I check all the boxes for Massillon except ursuline over Mooney and Western Hills over Elder, Massillon is at 18.8551.

Only checking Perry beating GO, they finish with 18.5845. Hoover probably beats Jackson (Lake also beats Fitch), so they are at 19.2031 with Hoover beating Jackson....so Perry is ahead of us.

If Wadsworth beats Tallmadge, they are in.

I'm going to say the last four are Perry, Ross, Wadsworth, and Perrysburg in no particular order.

[Obie Wan]

Mck over Boardman helped. Buchtel losing by 1 point didn't.
It didn't help us that McKinley forfeited, that Buchtel can't kick an XP, or that Middletown couldn't score from the 6" line.

With what OW posted, I just don't see any way it happens. If I check all the boxes for Massillon except ursuline over Mooney and Western Hills over Elder, Massillon is at 18.8551.

Only checking Perry beating GO, they finish with 18.5845. Hoover probably beats Jackson (Lake also beats Fitch), so they are at 19.2031 with Hoover beating Jackson....so Perry is ahead of us.

If Wadsworth beats Tallmadge, they are in.

I'm going to say the last four are Perry, Ross, Wadsworth, and Perrysburg in no particular order.
Reasonable projections put us just over 17 points. Reasonable projections put several other teams above that. If GlenOak beats Perry, they're ahead of us. If Perry splits with GlenOak and Hoover, they're ahead of us. And so on and so on...

Our slim hopes are based on complete meltdowns by several teams.

[massillon catholic]

It didn't help us that McKinley forfeited, that Buchtel can't kick an XP, or that Middletown couldn't score from the 6" line.
.

What really hurts was we couldn't score from the 6" line.

[npaflas]

I can't figure out how you guys are doing that. All i remember is the total pts were way higher than they are now. They did change the pts. system since i live there. It use to be if you beat a triple a team you would get 3pts for the team you beat and the total pts for that team with there wins. For example they win 8 games and 2 teams were in double A you would get 2 pts for each double a team game and the other 6 games you would get 3 pts. for each game the total pts would bewoul be 22pts plus you would get 3 for beating that team for a total of 25pts. Doe's anybody remember that.

[npaflas]

I can't figure out how you guys are doing that. All i remember is the total pts were way higher than they are now. They did change the pts. system since i live there. It use to be if you beat a triple a team you would get 3pts for the team you beat and the total pts for that team with there wins. For example they win 8 games and 2 teams were in double A you would get 2 pts for each double a team game and the other 6 games you would get 3 pts. for each game the total pts would bewoul be 22pts plus you would get 3 for beating that team for a total of 25pts. Doe's anybody remember that.

[tigerbill]

Come on, Guys. We have to get in with 6-4 record. Man2Man predicted it a couple weeks back and you all know how credible he is.

Go Tigers and go Coach Stacy and take your squire with you.

Tigerbill

LOL

[austinsm11]

I'm just kind of hoping that Elder won't make it so I can laugh at everyone down here how Independence lost to an Ohio team that couldn't even make the playoffs.

[npaflas]

I don't think there is a way we can make not enough pts.

[npaflas]

Just BEATING MCKINLEY makes my year GO TIGERS

[Tiger Flame]

If the Tigers finished 1-9 and beat McKinley,would that make your year ? GO TIGERS BEAT WESTERN HILLS

[massillon catholic]

If the Tigers finished 1-9 and beat McKinley,would that make your year ? GO TIGERS BEAT WESTERN HILLS


Believe it or not, there are those out there that think winning a state champioship but losing to McK in the same season would be a bad year.

[Banks]

Check it out (http://geocities.com/massillonharbins/2007r2.html).

That spreadsheet is interesting but I don't know if anyone brought this up but the figures they are using are off .

We have 11.2734 not the 10.7359 that is listed

[Obie Wan]

That spreadsheet is interesting but I don't know if anyone brought this up but the figures they are using are off .

We have 11.2734 not the 10.7359 that is listed
The numbers listed are the minimum after week 10; they have nothing to do with current points. If we lose to Western Hills and McKinley, and if Middletown, Ursuline, Buchtel, and Warren don't win another game, we'll finish with 10.7359 points.

[Spize]

The numbers listed are the minimum after week 10; they have nothing to do with current points. If we lose to Western Hills and McKinley, and if Middletown, Ursuline, Buchtel, and Warren don't win another game, we'll finish with 10.7359 points.

It almost got me too for a second LOL.

What I see from playing with this is exactly what I thought I would see. We need to win out and the teams ahead of us (except Stow) lose at least one more game. Most, except Wadsworth, would 100% be below us if they lose both of their remaining games.

Be careful plugging the numbers, a lot of these games on here are 100% unpredictable.

The realism here is that there is a chance, but would require some upsets, and some major surprises. Perrysburg losing to a winless team was one. Mck beating Boardman was another. However, it is still a longshot.

[massillon catholic]

Turner will be at RB before we are in the playoffs this year. It ain't happening!