What Happens if?

[Tigerborne]

If the Tigers go undefeated the rest of the schedule. Do they have a chance to go to the play-offs?

This has probably been asked before but I couldn't find the answer.

GO TIGERS>....

[DAWGH8R]

www.joeeitel.com

We are currently 15th, and only the top 8 go.

[Spize]

It is a SLIGHT possibility. I would put it at 4% before this weekend.


BTW, GlenOak beating Hoover does not help us, given that GlenOak is catchable for us, Hoover is not.

Hoover and Brunswick at this point are locked into the playoffs and we can not catch them.

[Spize]

Middletown 28
Hamilton 21

Final

Ursuline 43
St Charels 14

Final

I hear Garfield lost too...

That helps us.

[Spize]

Basically it is like this.

As I see it if everything plays out as it should and there are no upsets, if we win out our points will be about 18.2-18.3

This is typically good enough for 9th, which means no playoffs.

However, getting in at #8 with those points IS NOT impossible, there are a couple key games that could go our way and allow us in.

For now though, we need to be realistic that it is an extremely long shot. Plus, we need to win out. WGH and MCK are NOT pushovers even when they are 2-5 or 3-3, especially when we are 3-4 ourselves.

[Spize]

Well... Green tried to help us, but...

Wadsworth - 49
Green - 31



Come Sunday, I will be able to draw you up a really realistic scenario of what needs to happen.

[Spize]

Whitmer Beat St. John's in O.T.

I am figuring out if that is a good thing or not. Maybe a good thing, they have a shot of losing in week 10 too, although I would have preferred Whitmer lose because they have a better chance of collecting another loss or two.

[Go Hooter Go]

#8 Fremont Ross wins 29-27 over Findlay.

:thumbsup:

[Spize]

#8 Fremont Ross wins 29-27 over Findlay.

:thumbsup:


That's not good, they barely won and Findlay is horrible. I think Napolean is gonna beat you guys.

[Go Hooter Go]

:laughing:

The score between Findlay and Fremont Ross are always close. Also, Findlay seems to play a schedule similar to Massillon's with the exception of League Games.

You seem to think Toledo Whitmer must mean something, we beat them this year...

Napoleon? I don't think so.

[Spize]

:laughing:

The score between Findlay and Fremont Ross are always close. Also, Findlay seems to play a schedule similar to Massillon's with the exception of League Games.

You seem to think Toledo Whitmer must mean something, we beat them this year...

Napoleon? I don't think so.


Ok, you got me on that. They do play close. However don't laugh at Napoleon too loudly, they have beat Ross 3 for the last 4 years.


Anyhow, Ross is just one of many scenarios that can/must play out. Like I said it is only about a 3-4% chance that we can slip in anyhow.

BTW, let me add another thing I have figured since I last posted.

PERRY MUST LOSE TO HOOVER.

Mayfield 17 Stow 14.

Now if Stow loses to Nordonia, you can chalk them up as OUT as well.

[Go Hooter Go]

Napoleon has been that annoying tough Division III Team that seems to play Fremont Ross HARD.

However, I would not count the 2002-2003 Seasons into that record, as Fremont Ross only Won 1 Game in 2 Years that Period (1-19).

Under new Head Coach Derek Kidwell and Staff, they are currently 1-2 against Napoleon.

Average Score: 26.3 Fremont Ross to 24.3 Napoleon.

We return the same defense that held Napoleon to a WHOLE 10 yards in the 2nd Half of last year.

I will give you this, Fremont Ross HAS TO BEAT Napoleon to get into the Playoffs.

I don't see Brunswick losing a game this season, if any just 1. They WILL make the Playoffs.

I see North Canton Hoover losing 1 more game MAX if that and it looks to be Perry has the best chances of beating them. I think they will make the Playoffs.

I see Toledo Whitmer losing 1 more game MAX if that and it looks to be Toledo Central Cathloic has the best chances of beating them. They WILL make the Playoffs.

I see Perrysburg losing 1 more game, maybe 2. Southview should beat Perrysburg and Rossford might beat Perrysburg. Perrysburg MIGHT make the Playoffs.

I agree with you about Stow-Munroe Falls. If they lose to Nordonia and I think they will, they won't make the Playoffs. I don't think Stow-Munroe will make the playoffs.

Toledo St. Johns will win out. I think they will make the playoffs.

Wadsworth needs to beat Tallmadge to garentee themselfs a spot in the playoffs. If they don't they may get into the playoffs. Not sure about this one.

Fremont Ross should win out, but only Napoleon stops in their way for a spot in the playoffs and a GBC Title. Fremont Ross NEEDS to beat Napoleon or they have no chance at the playoffs. I think they will make the playoffs.

Nordonia might lose no more then 1 game, and thats to Mayfield. If they beat Stow-Munroe, they will make the playoffs. Nordonia should make the playoffs.

Amherst Steele should win the next two games, but when it comes to Avon Lake, they will lose and not qualify for the playoffs.

Perry, I think might lose Hoover or GlenOak, but a lost to either team and I don't think they will make the playoffs.

GlenOak is facing the toughest part of their schedule and should lose at least 1 if not 2 of them. GlenOak I don't think will make the playoffs.

[JakeGiant]

Yes, Napoleon has won 3 of 4 against Ross. Many teams were successful against Ross when our program was in a mess, and rebuilding, i.e. programs that didn't typically have success in the past against Ross. Last year's win at Naptown, I have a feeling, was a start to Ross regaining dominance in this series.

At any rate, tonight's game had me baffled. It was one where a casual fan was comfortable all night Ross would win, and possibly win by at 3 scores, and then all of a sudden, we're in a dogfight, and needing to stop a 2 point conversion to preserve the W.

[JakeGiant]

Hooter, I'm not sure on SJJ making the Playoffs. Their next 2 weeks don't offer many Harbins, and I wouldn't pencil a win over St. Francis in Week 10 quite yet.

[Go Hooter Go]

St. Johns has about as many Harbin Points coming up as Fremont Ross does...

[JakeGiant]

Not over the next 2 weeks. And I don't think their defeated opponents won't help too much, either. At any rate, it won't mean squat if we don't take care of business, and tonight, that exactly almost came back, and bit us in the butt.

[longtimefirsttime]

Let's see how the Tigers fare against Warren.

[Spize]

I am going through the L2s right now that I didn't have last night, and I am downgrading our chances to about 2% if we win out.

A couple of key upsets have thrown the L2 world amiss.

Let's beat Warren and Beat Mckinley, that will be good enough for me, playoffs would be a bonus.

Along with a few key upsets in our region...

I will put it this way, for to be back where we were before these L2 upsets, WGH beats Iggy and W.H. wins another game. If neither of those happens, we need Ursuline to beat Mooney, and it comes down to it the last week, we would need Middletown to beat Princeton and/or WGH to beat Cathedral Prep (PA), Perry's Canadian team losing out would help. That is just to put us back to the slightest chance we had before this weekend.

This is given everything else goes as it should, which it hasn't so far.

[RossFan]

Canton GlenOak winning last night really screwed up this region.

Fremont also took a big hit when Tiffin Columbian lost to Fostoria. Fostoria scored with 2 minutes left in the game to take the win. If Tiffin wins, Ross would currently be in 7th. Instead they are 9th and out.

The good news for teams fighting for a spot is that are 3 teams in the top 8 right now who can't afford to lose 1 more game. Perrysburg will have a real tough time beating one of the better Southview teams in recent memory. Wadsworth will have to beat Tallmadge which probably won't happen. St. John's is scary because they could easily win out. But their big rival is St. Francis so anything can happen in that game.

As far as GlenOak goes, I think they are going to have to win 2 of their last 4 games to make it in. The best scenario would have GlenOak losing to Lake and Boardman.

Perry is gonna have to win out to have a chance too. Everyone right now should be rooting for Hoover to win out. That would most likely eliminate Perry.


Worst case scenario would be having Amherst Steele upsetting Avon Lake and Stow beating Nordonia. If either of those happen then all of us can start gettin ready for basketball.

[longtimefirsttime]

It's early in the 2nd quarter and Warren is getting trounced by Iggy, 28-0.

[TigerVic]

Iggy 56, Warren 0. Final. Wow.

[Kamd50]

Iggy 56, Warren 0. Final. Wow.

Double Wow!

[Spize]

So far my math has these schools as locks to finish above us, and all are pretty much playoff locks.

Brunswick
Hoover
Perrysburg
Nordonia/Stow game winner.
Whitmer
Fremont Ross (not a playoff lock, but a lock to finish above us)

Teams we can pass... but what needs to happen.

We would need to win out... AND the teams we beat, and have beaten, win at least 9 more games. *not including Mck/Boardman (because that helps a couple teams on this list equally as it does us.)(basically if Mck beat boardman, take it as a wash for the Perry and GlenOak scenarios)

According to http://www.geocities.com/massillonharbins/ this would put us over 18 points, and would put us in as long as at least 5 of the following 6 things happens.


Wadsworth...

Must lose to Tallmadge & Wooster loses out with all other teams they beat onlny winning 7 total games (not impossible)

Perry...

Must lose to Hoover with all other teams they beat only getting 5 wins.
or, Loss to Hoover and GlenOak.

GlenOak...

2 more loses and 8 or less wins by teams they have beat (once again, Wooster losing out would help us a lot)
or, lose out.

Toledo St. John's

Must lose 1 of their last 2 games with all the teams they beat only winning 8 or less games.

Nordonia vs Stow loser. (Trust me.. GO NORDONIA!!)

If Stow, not much else needs to happen, just they teams they have beat must win 9 or less games to end the year. This would be a huge upset if their opponents won 9 games.

If Nordonia, this one is sticky. Nordonia MUST then lose to Mayfield in week 9, and have the teams they beat win 8 or less games.

Amherst Steele...

Must lose in week 10 to Avon Lake.

(It is not really likely they will be challenged until then, but if they are beaten I will update this)

in progress...

Basically it is down to 8 teams wanting 3 spots, and we are currently battered and bruised on the bottom of that pile.

It is not looking good. I may have made an error in there, if so that whole thing is wrong, but if my calculations are right (I think they are) then that is our playoff scenario in a nutshell.

[Go Hooter Go]

Don't mean to nit pick, but its FREMONT, not Freemont.

[Spize]

Don't mean to nit pick, but its FREMONT, not Freemont.

Sorry, but if you were looking at all the tiny little excel checkboxes I have been looking at while doing this, your eyes would be screwy too LOL.

[Al.]

Spize
You can save yourself a lot of time and energy and spend it with your new daughter. Just go to http://www.joeeitel.com/hsfoot/2007region_2.html

[Spize]

Spize
You can save yourself a lot of time and energy and spend it with your new daughter. Just go to http://www.joeeitel.com/hsfoot/2007region_2.html

I know that, but that site does not give you the scenarios that would have to play out.

[Al.]

I know that, but that site does not give you the scenarios that would have to play out.


Prob starting next week he will list those teams mathematically eliminated, those with a chance and those who control their own destiny.

[Spize]

So far my math has these schools as locks to finish above us, and all are pretty much playoff locks.

Brunswick
Hoover
Perrysburg
Nordonia/Stow game winner.
Whitmer
Fremont Ross (not a playoff lock, but a lock to finish above us)

Teams we can pass... but what needs to happen.

We would need to win out... AND the teams we beat, and have beaten, win at least 9 more games. *not including Mck/Boardman

According to http://www.geocities.com/massillonharbins/ this would put us over 18 points, and would put us in as long as at least 5 of the following 6 things happens.


Wadsworth...

Must lose to Tallmadge & Wooster loses out with all other teams they beat onlny winning 7 total games (not impossible)

Perry...

Must lose to Hoover with all other teams they beat only getting 5 wins.
or, Loss to Hoover and GlenOak.

GlenOak...

2 more loses and 8 or less wins by teams they have beat (once again, Wooster losing out would help us a lot)
or, lose out.

Toledo St. John's

Must lose 1 of their last 2 games with all the teams they beat only winning 8 or less games.

Nordonia vs Stow loser. (Trust me.. GO NORDONIA!!)

If Stow, not much else needs to happen, just they teams they have beat must win 9 or less games to end the year. This would be a huge upset if their opponents won 9 games.

If Nordonia, this one is sticky. Nordonia MUST then lose to Mayfield in week 9, and have the teams they beat win 8 or less games.

Amherst Steele...

Must lose in week 10 to Avon Lake.

(It is not really likely they will be challenged until then, but if they are beaten I will update this)


Basically it is down to 8 teams wanting 3 spots, and we are currently battered and bruised on the bottom of that pile.

It is not looking good. I may have made an error in there, if so that whole thing is wrong, but if my calculations are right (I think they are) then that is our playoff scenario in a nutshell.

There is what I have worked up as the playoff scenario.

I am going to post it as it's own thread.

[Banks]

Cle. St. Ignatius 56, Warren Harding 0
Cin. Hughes 33, Cin. Western Hills 12

Mentor 49, Shaker Hts. 7

[Spize]

Cle. St. Ignatius 56, Warren Harding 0
Cin. Hughes 33, Cin. Western Hills 12

Mentor 49, Shaker Hts. 7

Already factored those in, but if you have the score from the Canadian team that Perry beat, it would help.

[tigerfanatic02]

Hey, Where 13th on Joe Eitel. Man i would love to get to play offs for one reason.


Too see mentor agian.

[longtimefirsttime]

Already factored those in, but if you have the score from the Canadian team that Perry beat, it would help.


St. Jean De Brebeuf 15 Bishop Tonnos 8